D-Day: Who Succeeds Yahaya Bello? By Ozumi Abdul
POLITICS DIGEST- The off-season governorship election in Kogi state which is underway will provoke a lot of talking points in the country’s political space, especially coming off the general elections that took place early in the year.
Like that of Imo and Bayelsa states which are taking place simultaneously, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) would make another attempt at convincing critics that it means well for Nigeria’s democracy.
Nigerians will also be looking forward to the body language of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to further check his tolerance level and democratic credentials.
Tension, anxiety and threats of violence are on the rise in Kogi because the state’s polity has never been this polarised along ethnic lines over an election.
Ethnicity will therefore be the number one factor that will shape the direction of the poll and the fate of the gladiators. The Igala are jostling to return to power. The Ebira are hoping to hold on to power for at least the next four years, to get a bit close to the 16 years the Igala ruled from 1999 to 2015.
Recall that the Ebira came to power in the state via what many considered as ‘divine intervention’ in 2015, when Yahaya Bello, the incumbent, emerged as the governor, after Prince Abubakar Audu suddenly died while coasting home to victory – a situation that created constitutional crisis in the country’s polity.
Also agitating are the Okun from the West senatorial district of the state. The West has never tasted power since the state was created in 1991. The only time they had a shot at the Lugard House was when Clarence Olafemi, the then Speaker of the Kogi State House of Assembly, (KSHA), stood in as Acting Governor in 2007, during the interregnum between the former governors, Late Prince Audu, who was challenging the victory of Alhaji Ibrahim Idris; both were Igala.
How the Four Gladiators Stand
POLITICS DIGEST takes a look at the chances, strengths and weaknesses of each of the four gladiators:
Leke Abejide, African Democratic Congress (ADC)
Honourable Leke Abejide has paid his dues in Kogi state politics especially in Yagba part of Kogi West where he has a cult-like following of some sort.
He contested and won his election under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in February as a member of House of Representative in 2023. He is representing the Yagba federal constituency,
and he is the Deputy Chairman Committee on Customs and Excise.
Abejide came onto the political scene in Yagba federal constituency, the single largest sub-Okun sociocultural bloc,
from humble background but he has over the years cemented his place among the prominent stakeholders in the state.
The ADC candidate is coming into the governorship race on the platform of the agitation for power rotation to Kogi West which is justifiable to a large extent.
Abejide may as well win Yagba West and East LGAs but he has Dino Melaye of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to contend with in the rest of Kogi West. Aside that, neither Abejide nor his party has the statewide popularity to make serious impact in the election.
Obviously, an Abejide administration is an idea whose time has not come.
Ahmed Usman Ododo, All Progressives Congress (APC)
Of all the top four contenders in this poll, Ahmed Usman Ododo of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is the least politically exposed. His major political experience has been within the state as Auditor General of local government.
However, despite his obvious lack of popularity, he is the candidate of the incumbent governor who appears to have been clearing his path for him.
Governor Bello is not on the ballot, but some see Ododo’s emergence as Bello’s third term bid by proxy and will resent the idea of him succeeding the former. But this is not the case among the Ebira who are in majority in Kogi Central.
Another advantage Ododo has is the massive APC structure across the state. The party has two senators, over five house of representative members, twenty one local government chairmen, House of Assembly members etc and most of them would want to work hard to deliver their areas.
Ododo is expected to win all five LGAs in Kogi Central – Okene, Okehi, Adavi, Ajaokuta and Ogori Magongo. He also has the chance of winning both Lokoja and Kogi LGAs in Kogi West where the governor’s henchmen are firmly on ground.
Aside these two local governments, Ododo will have some fraction of votes from other five local governments in the West – Kabba/Bunu, Ijumu, Mopamuro, Yagba West and Yagba East, coming a respectable third behind PDP’s Dino Melaye and ADC’s Abejide.
Kogi East where the highest population is, is however a no-go area for Ododo because the Igala are trying to stage a comeback to Lugard House.
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Nevertheless, Ododo should be able to come a distant second there behind Alhaji Muritala Yakubu Ajaka of the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
The APC candidate should be able to get reasonable votes from Ofu, the local government where he picked his running mate, Joel Salifu Oyinbo, from.
Oyinbo was formally the state’s National Union of Teacher (NUT) Chairman and Treasurer of the Nigeria Labour Congress.
Another local government where Ododo may likely get votes in the East is Dekina, where Senator Jibrin Echocho comes from.
In the remaining seven LGAs of Ankpa, Olomaboro, Idah, Omala Ibaji, Igalamela/Odolu and Idah, Ododo will fancy his chances of getting 25 percent of the votes in some of them even though Ajaka is expected to win comfortably. As for Bassa, the only LGA in Kogi East which is not controlled by the Igala, it will be a battleground between Ododo and Ajaka.
Dino Melaye, People’s Democratic Party (PDP)
Dino Melaye of the PDP remains the most experienced and exposed of all the four major candidates in the race to succeed Governor Bello.
The self-styled ‘intellectually mobile and handsome’ senator has been in politics for over a decade now, with his first stint being in 2011 when he was elected as a member of the House of Representatives, to represent Kabba/Bunu/Ijumu Federal Constituency.
He dumped PDP in 2014, and immediately joined the APC as one of the most visible players in the then nPDP bloc, then revolted in the run up to the 2015 elections.
He later contested under the platform of the APC as a senatorial candidate in Kogi West and won.
Although, he was the Master of Ceremony during the inauguration of Governor Bello in January 2016, the two political titans fell out not long after and a lot of waters have passed under the bridge since then.
In today’s election, Dino is expected to mount a serious challenge in Kogi West, though the shadow of ADC’s Abejide is looming large in the area. In Lokoja, Dino looks very strong but he has the APC structure to contend with.
Dino may also not be able to record massive votes from the major power blocs of Igala and Ebira lands because the two largest tribes have their respective candidates they are rooting for.
PDP’s statewide political structure will come handy for Dino but this may not be enough to challenge his APC and SDP counterparts.
Muritala Yakubu Ajaka, Social Democratic Party (SDP)
The name, Muritala Yakubu Ajaka, hardly rang bell in the entirety of Kogi polity two years ago, except in his Eastern senatorial district where he is venerated as a thorough grassroots campaigner.
Although, he was one of those who stood by Governor Bello in 2019 during his second term bid, it is believed that Ajaka was compensated by the governor, who reportedly influenced his nomination as the Deputy National Publicity Secretary the APC, the position he later resigned from after he lost the APC governorship ticket to Ododo.
Ajaka joined the SDP for his governorship pursuit, and today he is a potential successor to Governor Bello.
He will amass the block votes from Kogi East and also parts of Lokoja with a lot of Igala population.
What may affect Ajaka’s chance however is his party’s lack of structure across the state.
In the Central and West, the party has no structure that can help the candidate to deliver the mandatory 25 percent of at least 14 LGAs which is required to be declared winner of the election.
Verdict
Despite the overwhelming popularity and acceptance of the SDP candidate in Kogi East, which accounts for almost half of the state electorate, according to the 2006 census, the APC still has some stalwarts – national and state legislators and local government officials – in the area who may work towards the party’s success in the poll with the few votes they are able to get.
Ajaka may as well be leading at the end of the first ballot since the population of his area is massive but it will be a tall order for him to get at least 25 percent of the votes in 5 other LGAs to add to the 9 he will automatically have in Kogi East. He will fancy his chances of getting it in Lokoja, Ajaokuta, Ogori Magongo, Kogi and any of the remaining 5 LGAs in Okunland.
Ododo on the other hand will get some few votes in the West to add to his huge numbers in Central. If he can maintain a slim lead ahead of Ajaka at the end of the first ballot, he would be declared winner because he won’t have problem amassing the mandatory 25 percent of the 14 LGAs required by law to be governor.
But if Ajaka is leading with the majority of votes without the 25 percent of 14 LGAs and Ododo is trailing him, there will be a runoff involving the duo and where the other parties pitch their tents will determine the winner of the runoff.
On paper, this election, even as it involves 18 candidates from 18 different political parties, is a four-horse race involving the APC, SDP, PDP and ADC candidates.
But in terms of those who genuinely have a path to victory, it is going to be a two-horse race between Ododo of the APC and Ajaka of the SDP. It is going to be neck-neck race between the duo.
