March 18: The Looming ‘Guber Showdown’ in Lagos, Kano, Benue, Kaduna, Others
By Kabir Abdulsalam
March 18, 2023, is finally here. And the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, is set for the gubernatorial polls, in this year’s general elections.
Analysts are already anticipating an epic battle between the All Progressives Congress, APC, Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, the New Nigerian Peoples Party, NNPP, and the Labour Party (LP), especially in Lagos, Kano, Rivers, Oyo, Kaduna, Benue and Bauchi States.
The last round of election – the Presidential and National Assembly polls – threw up many surprises, making it difficult for any political Nostradamus to prophecy the winners of this Saturday’s titanic governorship elections, in the aforementioned States.
*Lagos State*
Hitherto, many will presume the guber battle is between Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of APC, and Abdul-Azeez Olajide Adediran (Jandor) of the PDP.
But the LP candidate, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, has become a force to reckon with, riding on the popularity of Peter Obi.
APC and Tinubu losing Lagos to Obi in the presidential election last month, is still fresh in the minds of many APC stalwarts in the State.
Many of them are afraid that their APC will likely lose again to the LP, if things go the same way.
Of course, the APC is also worried because it has never lost Lagos to another party since 1999.
Hence, it is working hard to sustain the jinx, beyond March 18, 2023.
*Oyo State*
Governorship elections in Oyo State always go down to the wire. In 2011, the late Sen. Abiola Ajimobi defeated (then) incumbent Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala. Ajimobi’s re-election in 2015 made him the only governor so far to serve a second term in the history of the state. But he lost his bid to move from the Oyo Government House to the Senate, even as the candidate he had anointed for the 2019 governorship poll, Adebayo Adelabu, then lost to the incumbent, Governor Seyi Makinde.
Makinde’s two main challengers are the senator representing the state’s central district and candidate of the APC, Teslim Folarin, and Mr. Adelabu of the Accord Party.
Adelabu, a former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), joined the Accord Party after losing the APC primaries to Folarin by 327 to 954 votes.
Political pundits are saying the governorship poll in The Pacesetter State, this year, remains too close to call.
*Rivers State*
Already, the APC and PDP are at loggerheads over which party actually worked for Tinubu’s victory in Rivers.
Nevertheless, while the PDP may not have a chance in Lagos, it is going to be an epic war between the party and the opposition in Rivers, come March 18.
*Kano State*
In Kano State, the gubernatorial contest may offer some interesting twists, especially in view of NNPP’s great performance in the February 25 polls.
The battle in the state is clearly between the Kano State Deputy Governor, Dr. Nasiru Yusuf-Gawuna of the APC, and Alhaji Abba Kabir-Yusuf, popularly called Abba Gida-gida, of the NNPP.
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But pundits have argued that Emirs of the 5 emirates created by Gov. Ganduje may likely work against the NNPP candidate, to make sure they retain their throne.
Abba Gida Gida is a loyalist and son-in-law to Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso. He contested the 2019 Kano Governorship election, using the Peoples Democratic Party banner, and controversially lost to Ganduje.
Meanwhile, Dr. Gawuna will be riding on the power of incumbency and the might of the APC at the federal level, while hoping to realize his dream of succeeding Ganduje.
*Kaduna State*
According to the outcomes of the last presidential and National Assembly elections, Kaduna State, like Kano, appears to be on the verge of a pendulum swing.
Observers have predicted that the failure of the incumbent governor, Nasir El-rufai to deliver Kaduna for the President-elect, Bola Tinubu, at the last election may affect the chances of the party and its gubernatorial candidate.
Of the 17 governorship candidates in the State, Senator Uba Sani of the ruling APC; Ashiru Isa of PDP, Jonathan Asake of LPand Senator Suleiman Hunkuyi of the NNPP, are the contenders.
But pundits believe either Sani or Ashiru will emerge triumphant at the end of the exercise.
Uba Sani had worked as El-Rufai’s political adviser, before his election into the 9th Senate in 2019.
He and his running mate have been touring the nook and crannies of the state, promising to review and build on El-Rufai’s achievements, although citizens of the state, especially the Christians, see him as a biased leader.
The PDP candidate, Isah Ashiru, is a former member of the State House of Assembly, and House of Representatives.
He joined the APC in 2014, and ran against El-Rufai for the governorship ticket, but lost.
He was the PDP candidate in 2019, and still lost to El-Rufai. Ashiru is determined to defeat Sani in this guber race, having garnered the good will of some people who are aggrieved with the APC administration in the state.
He has been promising to review the policies of the APC government in the state.
But it is no longer possible for the PDP to attract bloc votes from Southern Kaduna, because the LP has made inroads there.
However, it would be interesting to see if the NNPP candidate, Suleiman Hunkuyi and Jonathan Asake of LP, can stage an upset, just like the later’s presidential candidate, Obi, did in the state.
*Benue State*
Benue is among the states where the outcome of the 2023 governorship election will be difficult to predict.
Many predicted that Obi was favoured to win the state, despite the state governor, Samuel Ortom’s endorsement. Yet, the LP candidate lost in the presidential contest.
Ortom, who is among the PDP G-5 governors, also lost his bid to the Senate. He was defeated by the APC candidate, Titus Zam.
Going into Saturday’s poll, the battle is between Herman Hembe, the LP candidate, Titus Uba of the PDP and Hyacinth Alia of the APC, which some believe contributed immensely to APC winning the state, in the presidential election of last month.
*Bauchi State*
Air Marshal Saddique Baba Abubakar (rtd), a former Chief of Air Staff, is the APC candidate for the 2023 Bauchi State 2023 guber election.
While Governor Bala Muhammad of the PDP is still serving his first term in office. He will slug it out with APC’s Abubakar, to win his re-election bid.
