2023 Political Calculation By Muhammad Sagir Bauchi
As the political atmosphere in the country started to get momentum, top political actors are back on strategy board, to put down action and execution plan for a successful campaigns and elections victory. Overnight, some controversial politicians are now running away from their once arrogance and nonchalant attitudes to a born again attitude, thereby, looking away whatever may dent their newly ‘customized integrity’. The usual campaign promises of; provision of security, creating job oppurtunities, fight against corruption, etc now appears unsaleable talking points to the electorates as once were.
News of the inter-party crossover from some prominent politicians like former Speaker, Hon. Yakubu Dogara (PDP-APC) Matawalle of Zamfara (PDP-APC) Kwankwaso (PDP-NNPP), etc are making headlines.
Hon. Yakubu Dogara, is one of the major political figures in Bauchi State politics, his role in ousting the previous Governor of the state would never be neglected or under estimated. He played a vital role in his constituency and other spheres of the system.
When he decamped from PDP, the party that brought the present administration of Governor Bala Muhammad, several opinions were expressed in respect to that. To some, he joined the ruling party in anticipation of given the party leadership (i.e National Chairman of the party) to him. While, to others he was craving for the seat of Vice President, in case the party ticket is won by a Southern Muslim. In the present Nigeria, a Muslim-Muslim or Christian-Christian ticket at the presidential ticket is a non-starter, as it will definitely polarise the country, create chaos and mistrust.
Of the two opinions sorrounding the decamping of Dogara, none could totally be disregarded. As they contains some elements of truth. For instance, If APC assign Bola Ahmed Tinubu as it’s flag bearer, the party must pick a Northern Christian Politician with popularity, high political experienced and wide acceptance among the regional religious, political and traditional leaders/institutions, in order to convince the electorates to go out and vote the party on the election day. Dogara is one of those Northern Christians with wide appeal and political experience. But, can he win the confidence of his Northern block to vote for their ticket?
For that answer, we have to examine the current political doings and his image in his home state, Bauchi in order to answer that question.
The present political situation in the state is a bit complicated. We all witnessed how his doings in his constituency influenced the emergence of the present Governor of the state during the last governatorial elections, but events have overtaken the once-political comrades’ romance between him and the governor. His popularity has significantly dropped in 2/3 in the constituency he’s representing. And that could affect his future career in the state and beyond. Therefore, Dogara factor alone cannot influence Northerners to vote for his party.
Now, away from Dogara to the party at large. Months ago, APC Governor’s Forum paid an unexpected visit to the former President, Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan to date we had no knowledge of what was actually discussed during the visit, but looking at how the party is desperate to retain the seat of the president, it’ll be hard to disconnect it from what the Hausa people termed as “gaisuwa da ro’kon iri” They paid him a visit, may be to ask for his blessing, sympathy and support in order to use his influence in the South South to canvass support for their party flag bearer during elections. Or may be, to lure him into accepting to contest for the presidency on the party ticket.
If we take the party entirely and put it on a scale, we can see that the party is in dilemma of who to be entrusted with the party ticket that can retain the presidential seat. But looking at how the party zoned the party national executives, now it is clear that the flag of the party would come from the South. Among the top Southern candidates that expressed interest for the presidency are, Vice President Yemi Osibanjo and the party leader, Bola Tinubu. One of these two have every chance to win the party primaries. But, who among them can be an easy sale to all the regions of the country? Would the old rivalry between Igbos and Yorubas resurrect and allow Igbos to support anyone of them? Only time would tell. But in the North, despite the significant drop in trust and popularity of President Muhammadu Buhari, there still exist those supporters that will go for whoever PMB anointed to succeed him at the polls, while many will be in dilemma of choosing between one of their own, an outsider or may even decided not to vote at all.
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After the country’s return to Democratic rule, PMB was among those with desperate ambition to rule the country again. He contested three times, but losing at general elections, fortunately for him that he won at his fourth outing. During his failed bids, his body language was that he only relied on the votes of his fellow Northerners. By 2010 he realized that that illusion wont give him the presidency, so, he aligned/merges his one man party, CPC with an umbrealla forum of some rebellious and highly influential mainstream politicians from the ruling party, nPDP, ANPP and the Southwest’s AC to form the APC. This conglomeration of parties (merger) is what solely got him the presidency. With all honesty, looking back at the major contribution of the Southwest politicians, this is the right time for him to payback those that helped him actualized his presidential ambition with the party ticket on platter of gold, especially to a Southwestern candidate.
Even though, there’s no much tension within the PDP due to their discipline and expertise in handling intra-party conflict, however, the party must be careful with an emerging conflict from Wazirin Adamawa and governors overzealous ambitions, they must learn from their 2015 avoidable mistake that cost them the electioms and government.
Kwankwaso And His Over Ambitious Movement
Recently, we witnessed a new direction in our modern politics, whereby, former Governor of Kano State, Engr. Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso and other former political heavyweights formed a new movement with an ambition to upset the status quo ante of our politics.
No doubt, Kwankwaso is a political juggernaut with track record of achievements within his state. I don’t think it will be an exaggeration to say, none among his peers can match him in terms of positive impact on the lives of the poor. From that, he successfully built a team of educated youth that penetrated in almost all the nook and crannies of the Northern Nigeria. On a visit to any tertiary institution in the Northwest, it is rare to register the absence of a lecturer who happened to be an educational benefactor of Kwankwaso government or under his present Kwankwasiyya Foundation. And on the hand, Looking at his peers, let’s say H.E Aminu Waziri Tambuwal; the State he’s governing is not yet free from the shackles of illiteracy despite being a former speaker and a second term governor. His state is one those ravage with persistent banditry insecurity. Then, how can he save the nation from the current insecurity challenges if he can’t secure his state? But in terms of party acceptance and the 2019 PDP presidential primary election’s result, his political strength is bigger than that of Kwankwaso. Although, that will not be unconnected with his ability to forged sound relationship with his party leadership, unlike Kwankwaso who is known to have a mad love for dominating relationship and space without considering others. For instance, when he left PDP for APC in 2014, he dominated the APC in his state by anointing on his preferred candidates on the party tickets leaving no room for those he met in the party. The same happened when he defacted to PDP from APC, he cornered all the party structure and candidates to his faction without regard to others that were there before him. That forced people like Sen. Ibrahim Shekarau to leave the party.
Kwankwaso’s New Movement
Recently, Kwankwaso launched a new movement that aimed to bring a positive change to the political atmosphere of the country. Known political figures that attended the launching are ex-governors, ministers, political actors and some technocrats. But, I’m I right there is possibility that the movement would join an existing political party outside the two major parties in order to serve as a third force in the upcoming election. Assuming that it joins another existing party, then, is he the only person in the movement with a presidential ambition? How readily are his colleagues to assist him financially and politically? Are they influential enough to sway people to vote him? These and many more questions are begging for an answer.
At the moment, forming and marketing of new political party in Nigeria in a period of less than a year before election is almost impossible, unless it is a merger of existing political parties. Unlike this new movement that, the influence of it’s convener is the most powerful force that can be marketed. And if he can be marketed in his Kano easily, could that be done in Northeast that has VP Atiku, Ahmed Mu’azu, and Gov. Bala Muhammad that are eyeing the same seat?
Even in the Northwest, how well prepared is the movement to confront the likes of Tambuwal that outshined him during the 2019 primary election?
What about Southerners that believed that this is their Perfect time to clinch the seat? Therefore, Kwankwaso has alot to face in this his new direction.
If not for wishes being horses, he would’ve excercise enough patient to join either of the two bigger parties, especially the APC. Because, if the likes of OSINBAJO emerge as the party flag bearer, they will be left with no perfect match to serve as his running mate than him. But his desperation is for leadership is second to none.
But looking at the constitutional provision, one needs a political party in order to contest any political seat, since there is no constitutional provision for independent candidacy. With this, we can understand the political calculation of Kwankwaso. Going by the obstacle(s) mentioned, there is no possiblity of Kwankwaso to be the flag bearer of any of the two major parties. At best, joining of NNPP could serve as an avenue for him to test his relevance in the national political space, since that his new party has no candidate of his calibre. Therefore, there’s every possibility for him to clinch the party presidential ticket.
Can He Win?
This is something that only time could tell. But definitely, if any of the political party give their ticket to a Northerner, Kwankwaso will now turn to a major spoiler to the Northern votes and a distraction. As such, this could pave the way for a Southern candidate to victory. And at the end, if God lend us long life to 2027, may be then he’ll contest again and luckily emerge as winner, since most of the contestants are either in old age or have given up their ambition
Sagir Ibrahim is a graduate of Economics from the Department of Economics, Bauchi State University Gadau. And can be reached via [email protected] or 07019718681
