2023: Rerun Likely in Presidential Election – Professor Habu

2023: Rerun Likely in Presidential Election – Professor Habu

By Ozumi Abdul

The Director of Bayero University Kano (BUK)’s Aminu Kano Centre For Democratic Studies, Mambayya House, Professor Mohammed Habu, has predicted a re-run in next month’s presidential election.

He made this prediction on Monday during an exclusive interview with POLITICS DIGEST crew.

Professor Habu pointed out that there are ‘too many weighty’ presidential candidates jostling for the coveted seat like the Labour Party (LP)’s Peter Obi who he said will have block votes from his South Eastern zone, then splinter votes across other zones, as well as his New Nigeria’s Peoples Party (NNPP) counterpart, Rabiu Kwankwaso, who he also predicted will have votes from the North, especially North West his zone, and then fragmented votes from other zones.

He added that the duo in the race portends a serious ‘headache’ to the All Progressive Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as well as their presidential candidates who he said are considered the ‘major contenders’ in the polls.

The university don however questioned the preparedness of the electoral body and security agents, querying what will be their ‘plan B’ in case of a re-run.

“You know the success of election goes beyond the electoral administration, it goes beyond the preparation of the INEC.

“It includes the participation of all stakeholders, these stakeholders include the police, the civil society organisations and other security agents particularly the Army, Navy and all of them. But as far as I’m concerned, do we have the required strength of the Police that will safeguard the elections and secure it especially in the case of re-run?

“We currently have about 370,000 policemen in the country, whereas the country needs nothing less than 1.5 million, and elections will be conducted in all the states, which is to tell you that we have a long way to go in terms of security.

“For example, if the election goes into a re-run, I mean the presidential election, because today we have so many weighty politicians, like Atiku from PDP, APC’s Tinubu, then Obi from South East, Kwankwaso from the North, which is to tell you that Obi will have block votes from the South, and splinter votes here and there, and Kwankwaso will have a lot of votes from the North West, and splinter votes here and there too, which will reduce a lot of votes from the two major political parties, so the possibility of a re-run is there and we don’t know if INEC has a to plan for that.

“Remember, if there is a re-run, it has to be conducted within 21 days according to the electoral act, so if INEC is saying they are ready they have to cater for those 21 days, there must be plan B. But have we heard of the police saying they are prepared for those 21 days if there is a re-run, since this is an agency the federal government will deny money to run an operation?

“This and many more remains the fears and trepidation of many Nigerians including myself because there are so many things to the electoral process”, he said.

The scholar also said he foresaw the likelihood of a merger involving Obi and Kwankwaso.

He recalled that the two presidential candidates have been in contact through their representatives for a purported merger, but said that the possibility of such merger was stymied by the egoistic differences between the duo who don’t want to play a second fiddle role as a vice presidential candidate to each other.

“I foresee a merger, alliance and re-alliace between Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso if there is a re-run, and that will be a big backlash to the two major political parties and their candidates.

“Don’t forget these two men have always been in contacts over this merger issues, but because of their egos it was not possible because Kwankwaso didn’t want to become the vice to Obi, so also Obi too.

“But when they come to the time that there is no any other thing to do than to merge, I mean if there is a re-run, that’s when they will come to the reality, and they will be convinced, even though not by their own initiation, but by other people who are eager to see the change needed for the country in 2023”, he said.

He then reiterated that the electoral umpire and security agents must be ready to conduct themselves in orderly and professional manners that will endear the successful conduct of the 2023 general elections, worrying that he dreads the unprofessional conduct of the police, discerning from the trajectories of their involvement in partisan politics in the past.